The holiday season is both an exciting and daunting time for retailers. Industry leaders are no doubt looking forward to the boosted sales the season brings and helping shoppers spread some holiday cheer, and many are working overtime to finalize plans and streamline their operations. The two goals go hand in hand; the more precise your holiday plans, the more successful your store is likely to be. That’s where our ShopperTrak Analytics solution comes in.

Each year, we leverage our historical and real-time traffic data to help stores worldwide anticipate peak shopping days and identify opportunities to maximize sales, ensuring their operations are up to the challenge.

Sensormatic Solutions’ data-driven predictions are based on deep analysis of historical data, ongoing shopper behavior trends, international holidays and major events. Since Christmas Day falls on a Wednesday this year, retailers should look at historical performance records from 2019—which is the last time the holiday fell on Wednesday as well as the last pre-COVID holiday season.

Of note, this year’s holiday shopping season is shaping up to be more condensed than those we’ve seen in recent years, thanks to the unique features of the calendar. With Thanksgiving falling late in November, shoppers will only have 26 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year (compared to 31 in 2023). Concerns about holiday shipping deadlines on ecommerce purchases will likely grow amid this contracted timeline, leading gift-givers to turn to brick-and-mortar options toward the end of the season to ensure they can get what they need in time for their holiday celebrations.

In terms of year-over-year performance, we anticipate the traffic trends the U.S. has seen throughout 2024 (-2.6% year-over-year [YOY] on average) to continue, with our forecast indicating traffic will relatively remain flat throughout November and December (down no more than 3% YOY). However, we expect the compressed holiday season to have an impact on individual shoppers’ total store visits since consumers will have fewer opportunities to shop. Given year-to-date performance relative to 2023, none of the data suggests a significant softening in consumer spending or traffic trends throughout the holiday season.

This year, U.S. retail’s busiest days will be concentrated toward the end of the season, with 4 of the last 5 days before Christmas Day making our top 10. Once again, Black Friday (Nov. 29) tops our list, followed by Super Saturday (Dec. 21; the last Saturday before Christmas Day). Rounding out the U.S. top five are Dec. 23 (Monday before Christmas), Dec. 22 (Sunday before Christmas) and Dec. 14 (two Saturdays before Christmas).

Around the world, the top days will vary due to local observances:

• In Canada, Boxing Day (Dec. 16; the day after Christmas Day) tops our list, with Black Friday in second place again this year.
• Across our southern border, El Buen Fin—a national shopping holiday—will again have a major impact. As such, we predict that Nov. 17-18 (Saturday and Sunday) will be Mexico’s busiest shopping days.
• In the UK and Ireland, the Saturday and Monday before Christmas (Dec. 21 and 23) will see the highest traffic.
• In France, Jan. 11 (the first Saturday day of the Les soldes d’hiver) is likely to be the country’s busiest day, as shoppers seek out sales and promotions.
• In Italy and Spain, the early-January celebration of Epiphany (Jan. 6) will drive shopping traffic, with each country’s top five days falling primarily within a week before or after the holiday.
• In China, New Year’s celebrations will drive in-store visits. New Year’s Day (Jan. 1) tops our list in the country, and the Lunar New Year (Jan. 28) will continue to drive increased traffic well into January.

Market benchmarks and traffic predictions provide a solid starting point for retailers looking to refine and refresh their practices and promotions heading into the final quarter of the year. However, utilizing first-party (in other words, their own) historical traffic data is key to making the most of the upcoming rush, delivering great customer experiences, building brand loyalty and maximizing sales.

Reviewing key metrics like peak traffic periods (“power hours”), shopper demographics and more can help retailers:

• Optimize staffing and scheduling to accommodate peak periods. Ensuring associates are on the floor and ready to assist shoppers during power hours helps retailers avoid long lines and bottlenecks, which means better experiences and more sales. Reviewing power hours from 2023 and before can give insight into hourly trends, ideal shopper-to-associate ratios (STARs) and other key factors that impact scheduling and labor demand. This can give retailers a heads up if they’re understaffed so they have time to fill gaps through re-skilling/training, expanding headcount or investing in technologies that free up existing employees.
• Refine merchandising, inventory management and fulfillment. Out-of-stocks and fulfillment mix-ups can mean lost sales and unhappy customers. Reviewing historical sales records and real-time purchasing trends can give insight into the items most likely to sell out (or underperform) at peak times. Radio-frequency identification (RFID)-enabled item-level inventory solutions enable even deeper insight, showing product movement and availability in real time so retailers can adjust should unexpected best-sellers arise during the season.
• Let intelligence lead loss prevention and security. Security is high on both shoppers’ and retailers’ minds this holiday season, as consumers express continued concerns about safety in retail environments. The retailers that succeed this holiday season will be those who effectively balance physical and visual deterrents with intelligence-led loss prevention programs to discourage retail criminals without adding unnecessary friction to customers’ journeys. AI-powered tools like Shrink Analyzer deliver clear lines of sight into the drivers of theft, fraud and other losses so stores can make changes that move the needle on shrink.
• Perfect promotions and personalization. Shopper insights—like demographics, dwell times and journey mapping—can help ensure retailers’ traffic-driving promotions are personalized and tailored to maximize return on investment. When paired with traffic analytics, this information can help retailers adapt and adjust their promotional calendars to align with high-impact days. Whether the goal is to bring in people during days on which retailers anticipate smaller crowds or take advantage of high-traffic periods, knowing who is on the floor, when and what they’re looking for can help ensure promotions benefit businesses and customers in equal measure.

The above is just a taste of what precise, enterprise-specific data can do to uplevel holiday planning. Visit our retail analytics page to learn more about the power of letting data lead as we enter the busiest days of retail’s busiest season. For more Sensormatic Solutions holiday insights, use #SensormaticHolidays to follow along on LinkedIn and X.